This week we almost now for sure which 10 will be nominated since both the DGA and PGA is announced. Right now there are 5 locks those are:
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
They all have the critic support, the buzz and the precursors. Almost all of them did well on the box-office and no one of them flopped. The Hurt Locker is the critical favourite and is one of the frontrunners to win alongside Up in the Air. Avatar and Inglourious Basterds are both dark horses that could prevail in the race because of their box-office success and admiration of them by the people. Precious was once the frontrunner, but the buzz has since failed to materialize during the award season and it has to be satisfied for a nomination in Best Picture only.
Then the rest of the five? Right now these seems safe bets for three of the places
But all of these are pretty unsafe. An Education seems safest, but it could be snubbed in favor of more mainstream or american products, the buzz is almost all about Carey Mulligan for the film. Invictus got good reviews but not great, but it's still a Clint Eastwood picture and we know the AMPAS loves him. Up is the unsurest of these three because of it's an animated movie and the buzz has faded a little, but because of the snub last year for Wall-E it's probably getting nom'ed.
Then the rest two of the spots, here are some contenders
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Where the Wild Things Are
All of these pictures have the same chances. (500) Days of Summer and The Messenger both suffers from being independent film. Where the Wild Things Are and District 9 was too long ago and the buzz is gone pretty much.
So it's going to be A Serious Man, Star Trek or Nine. Old Oscar wisedom says Nine. But since I want to predict otherewise I say that
A Serious Man
Will Be nominated!