Nightmares

Last night I watched the SAG red carpet, but was to tired to actually watch the ceremony so I went to sleep with the hopes that I would wake up and watch Meryl Streep winning a SAG, but in my dream SaBu won it and I woke up directly believing it was the right winner. Then I understood it was just a dream so I went to sleep again, this time SaBu was still the winners, but so was George Clooney, Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz & INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS. This time my nightmare didn't scare me.

I woke up 09.00 and got my computer started and WHAT DID I SEE?! SABU WON!!! WTF? Well it isn't so much WTF?! since Meryl Streep won the SAG last year they maybe want to spread the wealth, but an exciting Oscar it will be with neither Best Actress or Best Picture clear yet. Also on the happy news Inglourious Basterds and Glee won awards. IB was for me a surprise since the nomination of Krüger pretty sealed their love for the movie.

So now it's really:
Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker vs. Inglourious Basterds vs. Up in the Air

Of these movies I think Up in the Air has the weakest chances of winning.

The nominees will probably be:

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

All these seems to be safe bets with Up and Invictus little bit shaky since they both have some things detracting them. Up is an animated film and Invictus no one really loves just respects.

Now to the rest of the three.

(500) Days of Summer
District 9
The Messenger
Nine
A Serious Man
Star Trek

All have chances to be nominated, but for now I pick

A Serious Man
Star Trek

Crossing my fingers

The Oscar nominees are announced in a week or two and hopefully a surprise nod will go to the great Laurent. Damnd Weinstein who first campaigned her at the leading category then later the supporting causing confusion!

Oscar Race: Best Picture

This week we almost now for sure which 10 will be nominated since both the DGA and PGA is announced. Right now there are 5 locks those are:

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

They all have the critic support, the buzz and the precursors. Almost all of them did well on the box-office and no one of them flopped. The Hurt Locker is the critical favourite and is one of the frontrunners to win alongside Up in the Air. Avatar and Inglourious Basterds are both dark horses that could prevail in the race because of their box-office success and admiration of them by the people. Precious was once the frontrunner, but the buzz has since failed to materialize during the award season and it has to be satisfied for a nomination in Best Picture only.

Then the rest of the five? Right now these seems safe bets for three of the places

An Education
Invictus
Up

But all of these are pretty unsafe. An Education seems safest, but it could be snubbed in favor of more mainstream or american products, the buzz is almost all about Carey Mulligan for the film. Invictus got good reviews but not great, but it's still a Clint Eastwood picture and we know the AMPAS loves him. Up is the unsurest of these three because of it's an animated movie and the buzz has faded a little, but because of the snub last year for Wall-E it's probably getting nom'ed.

Then the rest two of the spots, here are some contenders

(500) Days of Summer
District 9
The Messenger
Nine
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Where the Wild Things Are

All of these pictures have the same chances. (500) Days of Summer and The Messenger both suffers from being independent film. Where the Wild Things Are and District 9 was too long ago and the buzz is gone pretty much.

So it's going to be A Serious Man, Star Trek or Nine. Old Oscar wisedom says Nine. But since I want to predict otherewise I say that

A Serious Man
Star Trek

Will Be nominated!

Mo'Nique oscar tactic?

In the last couple of week Mo'Nique has got a little "backlash" why?
Because she isn't campaigning, her decision not to show up at the NYFCC ceremony, her reason was something with her family to do, so it will probably not hurt her chances. But also that she asked former Oscar nominees what and Oscar does financially.

Well I think all these things are a campaign in it's own way, remember George C. Scott. He said that he didn't want the award, which led to more publicity and after all an Oscar, maybe he actually wanted the Oscar?

Early NBR Predictions

Best Picture:
1. Precious
2. A Single Man
3. Invictus
4. Nine
5. Brothers
6. Up in the Air
7. The Last Station
8. Bright Star
9. The Hurt Locker
10. Public Enemies

YES! I'm leaving out "An Education"

Best Director - Jane Campion - Bright Star
(Alternate: Michael Hoffman - The Last Station or Clint Eastwood - Invictus)
Best Actor - Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
(Alternate: Morgan Freeman - Invictus)
Best Actress - Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
(Alternate: Helen Mirren - The Last Station or Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri)
Best Supporting Actor - Jude Law - Sherlock Holmes
(Alternate: Christopher Plummer - The Last Station or Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia)
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique - Precious
(Alternate: Penélope Cruz - Nine or Natalie Portman - Brothers)
Best Animated Feature - Up
(Alternate: Ponyo)
Breakthrough Male - Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
(Alternate: Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Breakthrough Female - Gabourey Sibide - Precious
(Alternate: Carey Mulligan - An Education or Rose McIver - The Lovely Bones*)
* She had very much time in the trailer, will it be a sign?
Best Cast - Nine
(Alternate: An Education or Brothers)
Best Directorial Debut - Tom Ford - A Single Man
Best Original Screenplay - A Serious Man
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Last Station

Top Foreign Films:
Broken Embraces
Everlasting Moments
A Prophet (Release Date?)
Summer Hours
The White Ribbon

I Really don't know the eligibilty for this category

Top Five Documentaries
Anvil
The Beach of Agnes Varda
The Cove
This Is It
Tyson

I Have no idea really....

Top Independet Films
????

This is just guesses.

An Education to the Oscar

Haven't seen "An Education" but i've seen the trailer and must say GIVE THE OSCAR TO PETER SARSGAARD! He is long overdue for not only an award but also a NOMINATION!